Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) projects that the Thai baht will weaken to around 35 per US dollar by mid-2025, citing escalating global trade tensions as a key driver. The currency is expected to experience heightened volatility throughout the year before rebounding to 34.50 by year-end.
Tim Leelahaphan, vice-president and economist at the bank, noted that ongoing trade disputes between the United States and China, along with tensions involving other global partners, are likely to contribute to the baht’s depreciation in the second quarter of the year. In addition to trade concerns, fluctuations in gold prices and trends in Thailand’s tourism industry are expected to influence the currency’s movement.
The baht exhibited significant fluctuations in 2024, starting the year at approximately 34 per dollar, weakening to 38 by August, then strengthening to 32, largely due to domestic political factors. It later returned to around 34 per dollar by year-end.
The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2.25% in its upcoming meeting, according to Standard Chartered’s analysis. The decision is based on ongoing economic recovery and stable prices, supporting a neutral stance. A potential rate cut of 0.25 percentage points to 2% is anticipated in June, as the central bank aims to preserve policy flexibility amid rising uncertainties.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is expected to postpone its anticipated policy rate cut, which could add to financial market uncertainty. Standard Chartered forecasts Thailand’s GDP to grow by 2.8% in 2025, primarily driven by tourism and domestic consumption. Foreign arrivals have reached 3.97 million as of early February, aligning with pre-pandemic levels, and are expected to rise in the latter half of the year.
The government’s third phase of its digital wallet scheme, with a budget of 140 billion baht—equivalent to roughly 1% of GDP—is set to launch in the second quarter, providing additional support for private consumption.
The forecasted economic landscape presents uncertainties, particularly in the second quarter, as US trade policies evolve. Additional risks could emerge later in the year, adding complexity to Thailand’s economic outlook.
Senior officials and financial analysts attended a briefing where Standard Chartered shared these projections.
